hoop Odds & Edge Guide
Plain-English Guide to Sports Lines, Odds & Hoop’s Edge
Hoop uses GPU Monte Carlo simulation to price probability and expected value on live NBA & WNBA games. Here is what every number on the screen means.
1. Decoding a Real Line from the Edges Panel
When you look at a row in the Edges panel, here is what each piece means:
Sportsbooks add a half-point (4.5) so there can never be a tie! Since nobody records half an assist, 5 or more assists wins (OVER), and 4 or fewer assists loses (UNDER).
It does NOT mean 12 basketball points! It means +12 percentage points of probability advantage: Hoop’s GPU simulation gives her a 69% chance to hit 5+ assists, while the book’s payout only requires 57% to break even (69% − 57% = +12% edge).
On pick’em apps (Sleeper, PrizePicks, Underdog), a 1.74x multiplier means a 10-point entry returns 17.40 total (your 10 back + 7.40 profit). Because you profit less than 1-to-1 when you win, you must win 1 ÷ 1.74 = 57.5% of the time just to break even.
Before tip-off and after every play, Hoop’s GPU simulates the rest of the game 10,240 times. In 69% of those simulated games, Veronica Burton finishes with 5 or more assists.
2. The 3 Ways Apps Show Prices (and How to Compare Them)
Different apps write the exact same probability in three different ways. Hoop converts all three into a single number: Break-Even Probability (%).
| Format | Where You See It | Example | Plain-English Meaning | Break-Even % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Odds (Minus) | DraftKings, FanDuel | -110 |
Standard "even" bet with house fee ("vig"). You risk $110 to win $100 profit. | 52.4% (110 ÷ 210) |
| American Odds (Plus) | DraftKings, FanDuel | +150 |
Underdog bet. You risk $100 to win $150 profit. | 40.0% (100 ÷ 250) |
| Multiplier (Pick’em) | Sleeper, PrizePicks, Underdog | 1.74x |
Every 1 unit risked pays back 1.74 total (0.74 profit). | 57.5% (1 ÷ 1.74) |
| Cents / Contract | Kalshi | 52¢ |
A contract costs 52¢ (plus ~1.7¢ fee) and pays $1.00 if YES happens. | 53.7% (price + fee) |
3. Using the AI Line Assessor & Units (0.9U – 3.0U)
If you flip a coin that lands heads 69% of the time (hoop 69%) and pays 1.74x when it lands heads, your average return per $1 risked is 0.69 × 1.74 − 1.00 = +20.1% EV.
Instead of dollar amounts, Hoop grades bets in Units (U) based on how big the edge is (edge ÷ 9¢, from 0.9U for a standard 8¢ edge up to 3.0U for a massive dislocation).
In the 3D Edge Space, the flat grid is where Hoop and the market agree (Edge = 0%). The Rippling Probability Wave rises in emerald green where Hoop is higher than the market (+Edge) and dips in amber/coral where the market is overpriced (UNDER / NO value), rippling forward along the time axis (Z) as live plays arrive.