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TONIGHT'S SLATE 2-5 Today -0.8U · 4 open
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NBA Player Prop Hit-Rate & Money-Making Edge Board (2026-27 Regular Season)

All Markets · Top Hit-Rate Edges · Actionable Straight Bets, PrizePicks / Underdog / Sportsbook Parlay Slips & Next-Man-Up Usage Surges

ALL PTS REB AST PRA 3PM
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PRIZEPICKS · UNDERDOG · DRAFTKINGS

2-Leg High-Floor Power Slip

1.5U Target 3.0x Power / +260 Parlay
MIN
Jaden McDaniels L10 90% (9/10) · L5 Avg 18.2
OVER 14.5 PTS L10 Floor Edge
GS
Draymond Green L10 90% (9/10) · L5 Avg 6.6
OVER 5.5 AST L10 Floor Edge

Pairs our #1 and #2 floor-anchored Over props. Both players clear their half-point line in 90%+ of their last 10 games with positive L5 minute trends.

PRIZEPICKS · UNDERDOG · FANDUEL

3-Leg Pick'em / Same-Slate Parlay

1.0U Target 5.0x-6.0x Flex / +595 Parlay
MIN
Jaden McDaniels L10 90% (9/10) · Szn 14.9
OVER 14.5 PTS L10 Floor Edge
GS
Draymond Green L10 90% (9/10) · Szn 5.6
OVER 5.5 AST L10 Floor Edge
SAC
Russell Westbrook L10 80% (8/10) · Szn 6.7
OVER 6.5 AST L10 Floor Edge

Three uncorrelated Over props across distinct rotations where L10 hit rates and L5 averages sit well above the book's baseline number.

ROTATION SURGE · UNDERDOG · KALSHI

2-Leg Next-Man-Up Usage Stack

1.5U Target 3.0x Power / +260 Parlay
MEM
Rayan Rupert L5 35.2 MPG (+18.5) · 30.4 PRA
PRA OVER 9.5 L10 Floor Edge
NO
Micah Peavy L5 34.8 MPG (+19.8) · 16.4 PRA
PRA OVER 7.5 L10 Floor Edge

Targets two rotation players whose last-5-game minutes and PRA have jumped sharply while books still price their full-season averages.

🔥 Why the Line Is Mispriced · Next-Man-Up Rotation & Usage Surges

Players whose last-5-game role expanded sharply while sportsbooks still price their old season average
STARTER PROMOTION MEM
Rayan Rupert
Rayan Rupert Memphis Grizzlies · G
PLAY PRA OVER 9.5 2.0U Play · L5 Surge

Moved into starting lineup: playing 35.2 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 16.8 season avg) and producing 30.4 PRA per game (+21.2 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 35.2 +18.5 vs 16.8 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 30.4 +21.2 vs 9.2 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 17.6 PPG vs 5.2 Szn PPG
STARTER PROMOTION NO
Micah Peavy
Micah Peavy New Orleans Pelicans · G
PLAY PRA OVER 7.5 2.0U Play · L5 Surge

Moved into starting lineup: playing 34.8 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 15.0 season avg) and producing 16.4 PRA per game (+9.2 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 34.8 +19.8 vs 15.0 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 16.4 +9.2 vs 7.2 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 10.8 PPG vs 4.3 Szn PPG
STARTER PROMOTION CHI
Leonard Miller
Leonard Miller Chicago Bulls · F
PLAY PRA OVER 12.5 2.0U Play · L5 Surge

Moved into starting lineup: playing 32.6 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 16.1 season avg) and producing 25.4 PRA per game (+12.5 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 32.6 +16.5 vs 16.1 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 25.4 +12.5 vs 12.9 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 16.2 PPG vs 8.0 Szn PPG
USAGE EXPANSION BKN
Tyson Etienne
Tyson Etienne Brooklyn Nets · G
PLAY 3PM OVER 1.5 2.0U Play · 60% (6/10)

Primary usage jump: playing 31.4 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 15.8 season avg) and producing 21.4 PRA per game (+10.7 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 31.4 +15.6 vs 15.8 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 21.4 +10.7 vs 10.7 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 15.0 PPG vs 7.9 Szn PPG
USAGE EXPANSION CHI
Rob Dillingham
Rob Dillingham Chicago Bulls · G
PLAY PRA OVER 10.5 2.0U Play · L5 Surge

Primary usage jump: playing 26.2 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 14.9 season avg) and producing 23.4 PRA per game (+12.9 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 26.2 +11.3 vs 14.9 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 23.4 +12.9 vs 10.5 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 15.8 PPG vs 6.3 Szn PPG
STARTER PROMOTION SAC
Devin Carter
Devin Carter Sacramento Kings · G
PLAY PRA OVER 14.5 2.0U Play · L5 Surge

Moved into starting lineup: playing 31.6 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 18.4 season avg) and producing 25.4 PRA per game (+10.5 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 31.6 +13.2 vs 18.4 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 25.4 +10.5 vs 14.9 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 14.6 PPG vs 8.9 Szn PPG
USAGE EXPANSION BKN
Jalen Wilson
Jalen Wilson Brooklyn Nets · F
PLAY PRA OVER 9.5 2.0U Play · L5 Surge

Primary usage jump: playing 28.4 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 15.9 season avg) and producing 20.6 PRA per game (+11.2 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 28.4 +12.5 vs 15.9 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 20.6 +11.2 vs 9.4 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 11.8 PPG vs 6.4 Szn PPG
STARTER PROMOTION IND
Ethan Thompson
Ethan Thompson Indiana Pacers · G
PLAY PRA OVER 10.5 2.0U Play · L5 Surge

Moved into starting lineup: playing 33.2 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 20.5 season avg) and producing 21.2 PRA per game (+10.3 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 33.2 +12.7 vs 20.5 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 21.2 +10.3 vs 10.9 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 14.0 PPG vs 7.0 Szn PPG
USAGE EXPANSION UTAH
John Konchar
John Konchar Utah Jazz · G
PLAY PRA OVER 10.5 2.0U Play · L5 Surge

Primary usage jump: playing 31.4 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 19.9 season avg) and producing 21.8 PRA per game (+11.0 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 31.4 +11.5 vs 19.9 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 21.8 +11.0 vs 10.8 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 7.8 PPG vs 4.4 Szn PPG
STARTER PROMOTION UTAH
Oscar Tshiebwe
Oscar Tshiebwe Utah Jazz · C
PLAY REB OVER 6.5 2.0U Play · 90% (9/10)

Moved into starting lineup: playing 24.4 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 16.6 season avg) and producing 29.0 PRA per game (+13.4 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 24.4 +7.8 vs 16.6 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 29.0 +13.4 vs 15.6 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 15.2 PPG vs 7.8 Szn PPG
USAGE EXPANSION CHI
Patrick Williams
Patrick Williams Chicago Bulls · F
PLAY PRA OVER 11.5 2.0U Play · L5 Surge

Primary usage jump: playing 31.6 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 20.5 season avg) and producing 20.6 PRA per game (+9.1 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 31.6 +11.1 vs 20.5 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 20.6 +9.1 vs 11.5 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 12.2 PPG vs 7.0 Szn PPG
STARTER PROMOTION MIL
Pete Nance
Pete Nance Milwaukee Bucks · F
PLAY PRA OVER 9.5 2.0U Play · L5 Surge

Moved into starting lineup: playing 28.0 MPG over his last 5 games (up from 15.6 season avg) and producing 16.4 PRA per game (+7.3 vs season baseline).

LAST 5 MIN 28.0 +12.4 vs 15.6 Szn MPG
LAST 5 PRA 16.4 +7.3 vs 9.1 Szn PRA
LAST 5 SCORING 10.0 PPG vs 5.4 Szn PPG
ACTIVE MARKET All Markets · Top Hit-Rate Edges Half-point floor baseline
80%+ L10 HIT RATE 95 Props 8/10 or better over rate
ACTIVE 4+ GAME STREAKS 22 Streaks Consecutive games over line
ROTATION & USAGE SURGES 62 Players 389 qualified rotation players

Top 60 NBA Straight Prop Bets · All Markets · Top Hit-Rate Edges

🔒 500k GPU Sim Projections & Live EV% locked · Click any Player or Team for full dossier
# Player Team Bet / Line GPU Sim Proj Live EV% L10 Hit% L5 Hit% Szn Hit% Streak Szn Avg L10 Avg L5 Avg Cushion vs Line Last 5 Games (Most Recent First)
1
Jaden McDanielsJaden McDaniels F
MIN OVER 14.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
90% (9/10) 100% (5/5) 56% (42/75) 9G OVER 14.9 16.1 18.2 +1.6
15 17 16 18 25
2
Jaden McDanielsJaden McDaniels F
MIN OVER 21.5 PRA
🔒
EV%
90% (9/10) 100% (5/5) 60% (45/75) 9G OVER 21.9 23.0 24.8 +1.5
24 26 25 22 27
3
Draymond GreenDraymond Green F
GS OVER 5.5 AST
🔒
EV%
90% (9/10) 100% (5/5) 54% (38/70) 7G OVER 5.6 7.3 6.6 +1.8
6 8 6 6 7
4
Russell WestbrookRussell Westbrook G
SAC OVER 6.5 AST
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 100% (5/5) 50% (32/64) 7G OVER 6.7 8.1 9.8 +1.6
8 10 10 9 12
5
Javon SmallJavon Small G
MEM OVER 1.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
90% (9/10) 100% (5/5) 50% (20/40) 5G OVER 1.5 2.2 2.0 +0.7
2 2 2 2 2
6
Taurean PrinceTaurean Prince F
MIL OVER 2.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 100% (5/5) 38% (10/26) 6G OVER 2.3 3.7 4.6 +1.2
3 6 5 4 5
7
Brandin PodziemskiBrandin Podziemski G
GS OVER 1.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
90% (9/10) 80% (4/5) 57% (47/83) 3G OVER 1.9 2.6 2.4 +1.1
2 2 3 1 4
8
Maxime RaynaudMaxime Raynaud C
SAC OVER 21.5 PRA
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 100% (5/5) 47% (35/74) 5G OVER 21.3 27.0 32.4 +5.5
32 36 25 28 41
9
Justin ChampagnieJustin Champagnie F
WSH OVER 5.5 REB
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 100% (5/5) 53% (37/70) 7G OVER 5.7 6.1 7.2 +0.6
6 8 6 8 8
10
Oscar TshiebweOscar Tshiebwe C
UTAH OVER 6.5 REB
🔒
EV%
90% (9/10) 80% (4/5) 48% (13/27) 3G OVER 6.6 9.8 12.0 +3.3
17 22 7 4 10
11
Toumani CamaraToumani Camara F
POR OVER 2.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 52% (44/84) 3G OVER 2.7 4.0 3.4 +1.5
5 4 3 1 4
12
Rui HachimuraRui Hachimura F
LAC OVER 1.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 100% (5/5) 60% (42/70) 5G OVER 1.7 1.9 2.4 +0.4
3 2 3 2 2
13
Victor WembanyamaVictor Wembanyama F
SA OVER 11.5 REB
🔒
EV%
90% (9/10) 80% (4/5) 51% (34/67) 3G OVER 11.5 14.1 12.4 +2.6
13 13 13 5 18
14
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderShai Gilgeous-Alexander G
OKC OVER 1.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 100% (5/5) 51% (36/70) 5G OVER 1.7 1.9 2.4 +0.4
3 3 2 2 2
15
AJ GreenAJ Green G
MIL OVER 2.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 55% (44/80) 1G OVER 3.0 4.7 5.0 +2.2
3 2 5 11 4
16
Lachlan OlbrichLachlan Olbrich C
CHI OVER 4.5 REB
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 100% (5/5) 50% (7/14) 5G OVER 4.7 6.2 8.6 +1.7
15 9 7 7 5
17
Jayson TatumJayson Tatum F
BOS OVER 5.5 AST
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 56% (10/18) 3G OVER 5.7 7.7 7.4 +2.2
7 11 8 4 7
18
Brandin PodziemskiBrandin Podziemski G
GS OVER 13.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
90% (9/10) 80% (4/5) 52% (43/83) 1G OVER 13.9 19.7 19.0 +6.2
18 10 30 17 20
19
Cormac RyanCormac Ryan G
MIL OVER 2.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 100% (5/5) 64% (7/11) 5G OVER 2.5 2.6 3.4 +0.1
3 5 3 3 3
20
Toumani CamaraToumani Camara F
POR OVER 13.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 51% (43/84) 3G OVER 13.5 17.6 15.0 +4.1
19 18 15 5 18
21
RJ BarrettRJ Barrett F
TOR OVER 19.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 54% (32/59) 4G OVER 19.3 21.5 21.4 +2.0
23 20 26 22 16
22
Duncan RobinsonDuncan Robinson F
DET OVER 2.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 62% (49/79) 2G OVER 2.9 3.6 3.6 +1.1
5 5 1 3 4
23
Jaren Jackson Jr.Jaren Jackson Jr. F
UTAH OVER 1.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 62% (31/50) 2G OVER 1.8 2.1 1.8 +0.6
2 2 1 2 2
24
Stephon CastleStephon Castle G
SA OVER 5.5 REB
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 48% (34/71) 4G OVER 5.4 7.2 8.0 +1.7
7 7 11 10 5
25
Svi MykhailiukSvi Mykhailiuk G
UTAH OVER 1.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 60% (31/52) - 1.9 2.9 3.0 +1.4
0 2 5 4 4
26
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Jaime Jaquez Jr. F
MIL OVER 15.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 51% (39/77) 4G OVER 15.5 19.3 21.0 +3.8
19 22 26 23 15
27
Paul ReedPaul Reed F
DET OVER 4.5 REB
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 49% (33/67) 4G OVER 4.6 6.2 6.6 +1.7
11 6 6 7 3
28
Ty JeromeTy Jerome G
MEM OVER 2.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 59% (10/17) 3G OVER 2.9 3.3 3.6 +0.8
3 5 3 2 5
29
Daniss JenkinsDaniss Jenkins G
DET OVER 3.5 AST
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 60% (3/5) 46% (34/74) 1G OVER 3.9 6.1 4.2 +2.6
5 3 4 3 6
30
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Jaime Jaquez Jr. F
MIL OVER 25.5 PRA
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 44% (34/77) 4G OVER 25.3 29.1 30.8 +3.6
35 31 32 35 21
31
Paul GeorgePaul George F
BOS OVER 2.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 60% (3/5) 51% (20/39) 2G OVER 2.8 3.4 2.8 +0.9
3 7 1 3 0
32
Dylan HarperDylan Harper G
SA OVER 12.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 50% (36/72) 2G OVER 12.1 14.7 14.6 +2.2
20 18 9 13 13
33
Dylan HarperDylan Harper G
SA OVER 19.5 PRA
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 51% (37/72) 2G OVER 19.4 22.4 22.8 +2.9
25 30 13 23 23
34
Maxime RaynaudMaxime Raynaud C
SAC OVER 12.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 42% (31/74) 3G OVER 12.5 16.3 20.0 +3.8
21 23 17 11 28
35
Moses MoodyMoses Moody G
GS OVER 2.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 47% (28/60) 1G OVER 2.5 3.3 3.4 +0.8
4 2 4 3 4
36
Rui HachimuraRui Hachimura F
LAC OVER 11.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 54% (38/70) 1G OVER 11.5 14.1 14.6 +2.6
16 10 22 13 12
37
Ayo DosunmuAyo Dosunmu G
MIN OVER 22.5 PRA
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 60% (3/5) 49% (35/71) 2G OVER 22.0 28.8 24.4 +6.3
31 24 19 30 18
38
Jayson TatumJayson Tatum F
BOS OVER 22.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 56% (10/18) 1G OVER 22.1 24.4 23.8 +1.9
36 13 24 23 23
39
Kevin DurantKevin Durant F
HOU OVER 4.5 AST
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 60% (3/5) 50% (40/80) 1G OVER 4.8 6.1 4.8 +1.6
6 3 7 5 3
40
Amen ThompsonAmen Thompson G
HOU OVER 7.5 REB
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 54% (44/81) 3G OVER 7.8 7.6 9.0 +0.1
10 10 9 5 11
41
Matas BuzelisMatas Buzelis F
CHI OVER 5.5 REB
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 56% (44/79) - 5.8 7.1 6.8 +1.6
5 6 8 6 9
42
Duncan RobinsonDuncan Robinson F
DET OVER 12.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 53% (42/79) 2G OVER 12.4 15.8 17.2 +3.3
17 21 9 19 20
43
Donovan MitchellDonovan Mitchell G
CLE OVER 4.5 REB
🔒
EV%
60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 46% (33/71) 4G OVER 4.6 5.3 6.4 +0.8
10 7 6 6 3
44
Kevin DurantKevin Durant F
HOU OVER 5.5 REB
🔒
EV%
60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 46% (37/80) 4G OVER 5.5 5.9 6.2 +0.4
7 6 7 7 4
45
Tyler BurtonTyler Burton F
MEM OVER 1.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 50% (6/12) 3G OVER 1.8 2.0 2.2 +0.5
2 3 3 1 2
46
Kristaps PorzingisKristaps Porzingis C
GS OVER 5.5 REB
🔒
EV%
60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 44% (14/32) 4G OVER 5.2 6.1 6.6 +0.6
8 7 8 7 3
47
Saddiq BeySaddiq Bey G
NO OVER 2.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 60% (3/5) 43% (32/74) 1G OVER 2.1 3.0 2.4 +0.5
3 2 3 1 3
48
Naz ReidNaz Reid C
CHA OVER 13.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 47% (37/79) 4G OVER 13.7 14.0 15.0 +0.5
17 20 15 17 6
49
John CollinsJohn Collins F
DET OVER 19.5 PRA
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 60% (3/5) 54% (38/71) 1G OVER 19.9 22.0 19.2 +2.5
31 12 27 2 24
50
Tyson EtienneTyson Etienne G
BKN OVER 1.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 50% (12/24) 3G OVER 1.8 2.6 2.6 +1.1
2 6 3 1 1
51
Ja'Kobe WalterJa'Kobe Walter G
TOR OVER 1.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 41% (30/74) 1G OVER 1.5 2.2 2.4 +0.7
2 1 3 4 2
52
Devin BookerDevin Booker G
PHX OVER 1.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 54% (35/65) - 1.9 2.1 2.0 +0.6
0 2 2 3 3
53
Derik QueenDerik Queen C
NO OVER 11.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 47% (39/83) 1G OVER 11.7 14.2 18.8 +2.7
12 10 30 25 17
54
Tyler HerroTyler Herro G
MIL OVER 2.5 3PM
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 60% (3/5) 46% (16/35) 2G OVER 2.7 3.1 2.8 +0.6
5 4 1 3 1
55
Jaren Jackson Jr.Jaren Jackson Jr. F
UTAH OVER 27.5 PRA
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 46% (23/50) 1G OVER 27.1 31.2 29.4 +3.7
37 22 29 30 29
56
Obi ToppinObi Toppin F
IND OVER 18.5 PRA
🔒
EV%
60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 50% (13/26) 3G OVER 18.6 21.9 24.4 +3.4
19 24 25 16 38
57
Obi ToppinObi Toppin F
IND OVER 12.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 46% (12/26) 3G OVER 12.0 15.1 17.4 +2.6
13 20 21 7 26
58
Deni AvdijaDeni Avdija F
POR OVER 24.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 54% (37/68) 1G OVER 24.1 25.3 26.6 +0.8
26 18 25 35 29
59
Collin SextonCollin Sexton G
LAL OVER 20.5 PRA
🔒
EV%
80% (8/10) 60% (3/5) 58% (40/69) - 20.8 24.2 22.4 +3.7
8 23 18 32 31
60
Jabari Smith Jr.Jabari Smith Jr. F
HOU OVER 15.5 PTS
🔒
EV%
70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 54% (43/79) - 15.8 18.0 18.4 +2.5
7 30 16 19 20