NBA Player Prop Hit-Rate & Usage Surge Board (2025-26 Regular Season)

Points Over (PTS) · L5 & L10 Over Hit Frequency vs Baseline Half-Point Line · Next-Man-Up Rotation Surge Radar

ALL PTS REB AST PRA 3PM
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ACTIVE MARKET Points Over (PTS) Half-point floor baseline
80%+ L10 HIT RATE 129 Props 8/10 or better over rate
ACTIVE 4+ GAME STREAKS 41 Streaks Consecutive games over line
ROTATION & USAGE SURGES 83 Players 390 qualified rotation players

Rotation & Injury-Replacement Usage Surge Radar (L5 vs Season Baseline)

Players seeing the largest L5 minute & PRA expansion relative to season norms
STARTER PROMOTION MEM
Rayan Rupert
Rayan Rupert Memphis Grizzlies · G
L5 MIN (Δ) 35.2 +18.5 Szn 16.8 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 30.4 +21.2 Szn 9.2 PRA
TOP PROP L10 PRA O9.5 L5 Surge L5 17.6 PPG
USAGE EXPANSION NO
Jeremiah Fears
Jeremiah Fears New Orleans Pelicans · G
L5 MIN (Δ) 39.4 +13.7 Szn 25.7 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 43.6 +22.3 Szn 21.3 PRA
TOP PROP L10 PTS O14.5 70% (7/10) L5 31.8 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION CHI
Leonard Miller
Leonard Miller Chicago Bulls · F
L5 MIN (Δ) 34.2 +18.5 Szn 15.7 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 28.6 +15.9 Szn 12.7 PRA
TOP PROP L10 PRA O12.5 L5 Surge L5 17.6 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION NO
Micah Peavy
Micah Peavy New Orleans Pelicans · G
L5 MIN (Δ) 34.8 +19.8 Szn 15.0 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 16.4 +9.2 Szn 7.2 PRA
TOP PROP L10 PRA O7.5 L5 Surge L5 10.8 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION MIL
Ousmane Dieng
Ousmane Dieng Milwaukee Bucks · F
L5 MIN (Δ) 33.6 +14.2 Szn 19.4 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 26.8 +13.7 Szn 13.1 PRA
TOP PROP L10 PRA O13.5 L5 Surge L5 13.4 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION SAC
Nique Clifford
Nique Clifford Sacramento Kings · G
L5 MIN (Δ) 38.0 +12.9 Szn 25.1 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 30.0 +15.3 Szn 14.7 PRA
TOP PROP L10 PRA O14.5 L5 Surge L5 19.4 PPG
USAGE EXPANSION BKN
Tyson Etienne
Tyson Etienne Brooklyn Nets · G
L5 MIN (Δ) 31.4 +15.6 Szn 15.8 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 21.4 +10.7 Szn 10.7 PRA
TOP PROP L10 3PM O1.5 60% (6/10) L5 15.0 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION MIL
Jericho Sims
Jericho Sims Milwaukee Bucks · C
L5 MIN (Δ) 32.6 +12.6 Szn 20.0 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 25.2 +13.0 Szn 12.2 PRA
TOP PROP L10 REB O5.5 70% (7/10) L5 12.2 PPG
USAGE EXPANSION UTAH
Cody Williams
Cody Williams Utah Jazz · F
L5 MIN (Δ) 36.2 +11.9 Szn 24.3 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 26.4 +12.6 Szn 13.8 PRA
TOP PROP L10 PRA O13.5 L5 Surge L5 16.4 PPG
USAGE EXPANSION CHI
Rob Dillingham
Rob Dillingham Chicago Bulls · G
L5 MIN (Δ) 26.2 +11.3 Szn 14.9 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 23.4 +12.9 Szn 10.5 PRA
TOP PROP L10 PRA O10.5 L5 Surge L5 15.8 PPG
STARTER PROMOTION SAC
Devin Carter
Devin Carter Sacramento Kings · G
L5 MIN (Δ) 31.6 +13.2 Szn 18.4 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 25.4 +10.5 Szn 14.9 PRA
TOP PROP L10 PRA O14.5 L5 Surge L5 14.6 PPG
USAGE EXPANSION BKN
Jalen Wilson
Jalen Wilson Brooklyn Nets · F
L5 MIN (Δ) 28.4 +12.5 Szn 15.9 MPG
L5 PRA (Δ) 20.6 +11.2 Szn 9.4 PRA
TOP PROP L10 PRA O9.5 L5 Surge L5 11.8 PPG

Top 60 NBA Player Prop Over Edges · Points Over (PTS)

🔒 Unlock All 60 GPU Sim Projections & EV% · $1.99
# Player Team Prop Line GPU Sim Proj Live EV% L10 Hit% L5 Hit% Szn Hit% Streak Szn Avg L10 Avg L5 Avg L10 vs Line Last 5 Games (Most Recent First)
1
Bub CarringtonBub Carrington G
WSH O 10.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 90% (9/10) 100% (5/5) 54% (44/82) 7G OVER 10.7 14.5 17.8 +4.0
20 30 12 14 13
2
Jaden McDanielsJaden McDaniels F
MIN O 14.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 100% (5/5) 55% (40/73) 7G OVER 14.8 15.5 18.8 +1.0
16 18 25 19 16
3
Jeremiah FearsJeremiah Fears G
NO O 14.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 100% (5/5) 45% (37/82) 6G OVER 14.3 23.6 31.8 +9.1
36 36 40 19 28
4
Jabari Smith Jr.Jabari Smith Jr. F
HOU O 15.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 100% (5/5) 55% (42/77) 5G OVER 15.8 18.0 19.2 +2.5
16 19 20 23 18
5
Jayson TatumJayson Tatum F
BOS O 21.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 100% (5/5) 56% (9/16) 7G OVER 21.8 22.4 23.6 +0.9
24 23 23 23 25
6
Bilal CoulibalyBilal Coulibaly G
WSH O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 50% (28/56) 4G OVER 11.7 15.9 14.4 +4.4
25 19 12 12 4
7
Ace BaileyAce Bailey G
UTAH O 13.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 47% (34/72) 4G OVER 13.8 18.5 17.2 +5.0
15 23 14 22 12
8
Rui HachimuraRui Hachimura F
LAL O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 100% (5/5) 54% (37/68) 5G OVER 11.5 12.5 16.6 +1.0
22 13 12 15 21
9
Ayo DosunmuAyo Dosunmu G
MIN O 14.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 90% (9/10) 80% (4/5) 52% (36/69) 2G OVER 14.8 18.3 17.8 +3.8
15 24 12 19 19
10
Brandin PodziemskiBrandin Podziemski G
GS O 13.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 90% (9/10) 80% (4/5) 51% (42/82) - 13.8 20.1 19.0 +6.6
10 30 17 20 18
11
Deni AvdijaDeni Avdija F
POR O 24.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 100% (5/5) 55% (36/66) 6G OVER 24.2 24.5 28.2 +0.0
25 35 29 26 26
12
Saddiq BeySaddiq Bey G
NO O 17.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 56% (40/72) 2G OVER 17.7 20.3 20.8 +2.8
32 20 15 18 19
13
Isaiah CollierIsaiah Collier G
UTAH O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 44% (26/59) 3G OVER 11.7 16.5 17.6 +5.0
14 21 17 9 27
14
Aaron NesmithAaron Nesmith G
IND O 13.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 51% (23/45) 3G OVER 13.8 17.5 15.8 +4.0
26 14 19 5 15
15
Kyle FilipowskiKyle Filipowski F
UTAH O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 47% (36/77) - 11.4 17.6 18.2 +6.1
9 20 17 25 20
16
Maxime RaynaudMaxime Raynaud C
SAC O 12.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 42% (31/74) 3G OVER 12.5 16.3 20.0 +3.8
21 23 17 11 28
17
Brice SensabaughBrice Sensabaugh F
UTAH O 15.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 45% (33/74) - 15.1 23.7 23.0 +8.2
15 18 34 20 28
18
Ryan RollinsRyan Rollins G
MIL O 17.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 43% (32/74) 3G OVER 17.3 21.2 23.8 +3.7
23 24 24 12 36
19
Daeqwon PlowdenDaeqwon Plowden G
SAC O 10.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 50% (16/32) - 10.8 14.3 14.2 +3.8
8 20 11 15 17
20
Tre JonesTre Jones G
CHI O 14.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 46% (30/65) - 14.1 20.0 21.8 +5.5
6 23 31 20 29
21
Jarrett AllenJarrett Allen C
CLE O 15.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 46% (26/56) 1G OVER 15.4 18.0 16.2 +2.5
16 13 16 18 18
22
Toumani CamaraToumani Camara F
POR O 13.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 50% (41/82) 1G OVER 13.4 18.4 18.2 +4.9
15 5 18 30 23
23
Cameron JohnsonCameron Johnson F
DEN O 12.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 48% (26/54) 4G OVER 12.2 14.0 15.4 +1.5
18 17 17 19 6
24
Jaren Jackson Jr.Jaren Jackson Jr. F
UTAH O 19.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 44% (21/48) 4G OVER 19.4 21.6 22.6 +2.1
23 22 22 30 16
25
Dylan HarperDylan Harper G
SA O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 80% (4/5) 57% (40/70) - 11.9 13.3 12.8 +1.8
9 13 13 17 12
26
Collin SextonCollin Sexton G
CHI O 15.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 60% (3/5) 50% (34/68) 1G OVER 15.4 19.6 18.2 +4.1
19 12 27 15 18
27
GG JacksonGG Jackson F
MEM O 12.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 80% (8/10) 60% (3/5) 50% (27/54) - 12.7 18.0 17.0 +5.5
11 30 20 14 10
28
Dyson DanielsDyson Daniels G
ATL O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 60% (3/5) 49% (37/76) 2G OVER 11.9 14.2 12.4 +2.7
13 12 11 11 15
29
Obi ToppinObi Toppin F
IND O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 46% (11/24) 1G OVER 11.6 15.3 17.8 +3.8
21 7 26 14 21
30
Jarace WalkerJarace Walker F
IND O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 60% (3/5) 50% (38/76) 2G OVER 11.6 14.3 12.4 +2.8
17 14 11 5 15
31
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerNickeil Alexander-Walker G
ATL O 20.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 80% (4/5) 51% (40/78) - 20.8 24.3 26.4 +3.8
18 25 36 21 32
32
Jalen DurenJalen Duren C
DET O 19.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 60% (3/5) 49% (34/70) 2G OVER 19.5 21.4 19.4 +1.9
20 21 18 16 22
33
Moses MoodyMoses Moody G
GS O 12.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 60% (3/5) 37% (22/60) 1G OVER 12.1 17.4 16.6 +4.9
23 10 12 14 24
34
Pascal SiakamPascal Siakam F
IND O 23.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 56% (35/62) 3G OVER 24.0 24.4 23.2 +0.9
30 25 30 11 20
35
Derik QueenDerik Queen C
NO O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 47% (38/81) 3G OVER 11.7 13.6 16.4 +2.1
30 25 17 2 8
36
Victor WembanyamaVictor Wembanyama F
SA O 24.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 52% (34/65) 1G OVER 24.9 29.5 34.6 +5.0
40 17 34 41 41
37
Jakob PoeltlJakob Poeltl C
TOR O 10.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 60% (3/5) 46% (21/46) 1G OVER 10.7 12.0 10.4 +1.5
11 4 6 17 14
38
Christian BraunChristian Braun G
DEN O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 48% (21/44) 1G OVER 12.0 13.0 14.6 +1.5
14 8 21 18 12
39
Julian ReeseJulian Reese F
WSH O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 80% (4/5) 54% (7/13) 1G OVER 11.8 12.5 14.8 +1.0
14 10 16 17 17
40
Devin BookerDevin Booker G
PHX O 26.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 50% (5/10) 80% (4/5) 50% (32/64) 3G OVER 26.1 27.7 30.8 +1.2
37 31 30 22 34
41
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Jaime Jaquez Jr. F
MIA O 15.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 49% (37/75) 2G OVER 15.4 18.6 20.8 +3.1
26 23 15 8 32
42
Keldon JohnsonKeldon Johnson F
SA O 13.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 42% (35/83) 3G OVER 13.1 14.8 15.6 +1.3
18 17 20 13 10
43
Cormac RyanCormac Ryan G
MIL O 14.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 50% (5/10) 80% (4/5) 45% (5/11) 3G OVER 14.3 15.2 20.2 +0.7
22 28 16 14 21
44
RJ BarrettRJ Barrett F
TOR O 19.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 53% (30/57) 2G OVER 19.3 20.2 20.8 +0.7
26 22 16 15 25
45
Pelle LarssonPelle Larsson G
MIA O 11.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 44% (31/70) 1G OVER 11.4 14.1 15.0 +2.6
24 10 7 16 18
46
Joel EmbiidJoel Embiid C
PHI O 26.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 55% (21/38) 1G OVER 26.9 28.8 28.6 +2.3
34 19 26 29 35
47
Amen ThompsonAmen Thompson G
HOU O 18.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 40% (4/10) 80% (4/5) 47% (37/79) 3G OVER 18.3 19.9 24.2 +1.4
41 19 22 18 21
48
Ja MorantJa Morant G
MEM O 19.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 50% (5/10) 80% (4/5) 45% (9/20) 2G OVER 19.4 19.7 24.8 +0.2
23 24 16 40 21
49
Cedric CowardCedric Coward F
MEM O 13.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 45% (28/62) 1G OVER 13.6 15.4 15.2 +1.9
27 12 15 15 7
50
Jaylen BrownJaylen Brown G
BOS O 28.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 40% (2/5) 56% (40/71) - 28.7 30.4 30.6 +1.9
23 35 26 26 43
51
Jusuf NurkicJusuf Nurkic C
UTAH O 10.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 40% (2/5) 51% (21/41) - 10.9 12.4 8.6 +1.9
8 10 3 11 11
52
Paul GeorgePaul George F
PHI O 17.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 70% (7/10) 40% (2/5) 41% (15/37) - 17.3 21.0 15.0 +3.5
11 21 7 16 20
53
Kevin Porter Jr.Kevin Porter Jr. G
MIL O 17.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 40% (2/5) 55% (21/38) 2G OVER 17.4 17.6 13.4 +0.1
25 18 6 8 10
54
P.J. WashingtonP.J. Washington F
DAL O 14.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 45% (25/56) 1G OVER 14.2 14.9 13.8 +0.4
15 5 19 9 21
55
Luka DoncicLuka Doncic G
LAL O 33.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 52% (33/64) - 33.5 36.9 34.0 +3.4
12 42 41 43 32
56
Scoot HendersonScoot Henderson G
POR O 14.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 43% (13/30) 1G OVER 14.2 15.7 15.2 +1.2
15 9 20 18 14
57
Cooper FlaggCooper Flagg F
DAL O 21.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 41% (29/70) - 21.0 25.6 24.8 +4.1
10 33 11 25 45
58
Devin VassellDevin Vassell G
SA O 13.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 53% (36/68) 1G OVER 13.9 12.8 13.0 -0.7
19 5 14 9 18
59
Karl-Anthony TownsKarl-Anthony Towns C
NY O 20.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 60% (6/10) 60% (3/5) 47% (36/76) 1G OVER 20.0 20.2 20.2 -0.3
22 16 21 20 22
60
Kevin DurantKevin Durant F
HOU O 25.5 PTS 🔒 $1.99 EV% 50% (5/10) 60% (3/5) 50% (39/78) 2G OVER 26.0 26.3 28.4 +0.8
33 29 24 31 25