UTAH

Utah Jazz

1-4
Sim Win / Proj
31% (109.8)
5:00 PM PT
Implied Edge: Mavericks -6.8 · Proj Total: 226.4
Sim Win / Proj
69% (116.6)

Dallas Mavericks

3-2
DAL

Game Bets & Ledger (UTAH @ DAL)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Dallas Mavericks hold a 69% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Jazz 109.8, Mavericks 116.6 (projected combined total of 226.4 points and an implied fair spread of Mavericks -6.8). Visiting Utah Jazz (1-4, 112.4 PPG, 120.2 OPPG, -7.8 net diff) enters this matchup led by Lauri Markkanen (25.8 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.1 APG), while host Dallas Mavericks (3-2, 114.0 PPG, 112.0 OPPG, +2.0 net diff) counters with Cooper Flagg (21.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.6 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-11-06 (5:00 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
UTAH Utah Jazz #14 West 1-4 .200 4.0 31%109.8 112.4 120.2 -7.8 0-1 (Road) 1-4 L3
DAL Dallas Mavericks #8 West 3-2 .600 2.0 69%116.6 114.0 112.0 +2.0 1-1 (Home) 3-2 W2

UTAH Utah Jazz Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Lauri MarkkanenLauri Markkanen
 F STARTER 46 33.9 25.8 6.7 2.1 47.3% 35.5%
Keyonte GeorgeKeyonte George
 G STARTER 59 33.1 23.7 3.7 6.2 45.9% 37.5%
Jaren Jackson Jr.Jaren Jackson Jr.
 F STARTER 7 25.1 18.9 4.7 2.3 49.5% 34.5%
Kennedy ChandlerKennedy Chandler
 G ROTATION 11 32.2 15.0 3.4 6.7 44.5% 39.5%
Brice SensabaughBrice Sensabaugh
 F ROTATION 79 23.3 14.7 3.1 1.9 46.1% 37.3%
Walker KesslerWalker Kessler
 C STARTER 5 31.0 14.4 10.8 3.0 70.3% 75.0%
Ace BaileyAce Bailey
 G STARTER 77 27.7 13.8 4.4 1.9 44.7% 34.3%
Darryn PetersonDarryn Peterson
 G STARTER 5 28.6 12.8 4.4 2.4 34.9% 35.0%

DAL Dallas Mavericks Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Cooper FlaggCooper Flagg
 F STARTER 74 33.4 21.3 6.6 4.6 47.1% 29.7%
Anthony DavisAnthony Davis
 F STARTER 20 31.2 20.4 11.1 2.8 50.6% 27.0%
Kyrie IrvingKyrie Irving
 G STARTER 4 27.2 18.0 3.2 3.8 49.1% 34.4%
Naji MarshallNaji Marshall
 F STARTER 77 29.4 15.2 4.6 3.4 50.9% 28.9%
P.J. WashingtonP.J. Washington
 F STARTER 61 31.1 14.3 7.1 1.7 45.1% 32.5%
Brandon WilliamsBrandon Williams
 G ROTATION 66 22.2 13.0 2.9 3.9 47.2% 23.2%
Max ChristieMax Christie
 G STARTER 82 29.1 12.1 3.3 2.0 43.8% 39.9%
Klay ThompsonKlay Thompson
 G ROTATION 69 21.7 11.7 2.1 1.4 39.3% 38.3%