TOR

Toronto Raptors

3-1
Sim Win / Proj
76% (120.1)
5:00 PM PT
Implied Edge: Raptors -9.2 · Proj Total: 230.9
Sim Win / Proj
24% (110.8)

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4
MIL

Game Bets & Ledger (TOR @ MIL)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Toronto Raptors hold a 76% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Raptors 120.1, Bucks 110.8 (projected combined total of 230.9 points and an implied fair spread of Raptors -9.2). Visiting Toronto Raptors (3-1, 117.5 PPG, 102.5 OPPG, +15.0 net diff) enters this matchup led by Brandon Ingram (21.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.7 APG), while host Milwaukee Bucks (1-4, 113.4 PPG, 124.2 OPPG, -10.8 net diff) counters with Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.6 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 5.4 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-11-06 (5:00 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
TOR Toronto Raptors #3 East 3-1 .750 0.5 76%120.1 117.5 102.5 +15.0 1-1 (Road) 3-1 W1
MIL Milwaukee Bucks #13 East 1-4 .200 3.0 24%110.8 113.4 124.2 -10.8 1-2 (Home) 1-4 L1

TOR Toronto Raptors Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Brandon IngramBrandon Ingram
 F STARTER 77 33.8 21.5 5.6 3.7 47.7% 38.2%
Kawhi LeonardKawhi Leonard
 F STARTER 2 26.0 19.5 7.5 1.5 32.4% 28.6%
RJ BarrettRJ Barrett
 F STARTER 61 30.3 19.4 5.3 3.3 49.3% 33.2%
Scottie BarnesScottie Barnes
 F STARTER 84 33.4 18.2 7.5 5.8 50.1% 29.2%
Immanuel QuickleyImmanuel Quickley
 G STARTER 74 31.8 16.5 4.0 5.9 44.0% 37.3%
Sandro MamukelashviliSandro Mamukelashvili
 F ROTATION 80 21.9 11.2 4.9 1.9 52.3% 38.9%
Jakob PoeltlJakob Poeltl
 C STARTER 50 24.6 10.1 6.8 1.9 69.7% 0.0%
Collin Murray-BoylesCollin Murray-Boyles
 F ROTATION 61 21.6 8.4 5.0 1.8 57.0% 34.5%

MIL Milwaukee Bucks Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo
 F STARTER 36 28.9 27.6 9.8 5.4 62.4% 33.3%
Tyler HerroTyler Herro
 G STARTER 5 30.8 23.4 5.2 4.6 50.0% 47.2%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Jaime Jaquez Jr.
 F STARTER 5 29.0 17.8 7.2 2.6 53.2% 42.1%
Kevin Porter Jr.Kevin Porter Jr.
 G STARTER 38 33.2 17.4 5.2 7.4 46.5% 32.2%
Ryan RollinsRyan Rollins
 G STARTER 79 31.7 16.9 4.6 5.5 46.4% 39.9%
Cormac RyanCormac Ryan
 G ROTATION 11 24.5 14.3 2.5 1.7 52.0% 45.8%
Bobby PortisBobby Portis
 F ROTATION 67 24.1 13.7 6.4 1.6 48.8% 45.6%
Kyle KuzmaKyle Kuzma
 F STARTER 74 26.3 12.8 4.8 2.7 49.0% 34.7%