SA

San Antonio Spurs

0-1
Sim Win / Proj
28% (108.1)
6:00 PM PT
Implied Edge: Jazz -7.8 · Proj Total: 224.0
Open Matchup Simulator →
Sim Win / Proj
72% (115.9)

Utah Jazz

0-0
UTAH

Pregame 500,000x GPU Monte Carlo Simulation & Matchup Preview

Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Utah Jazz hold a 72% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Spurs 108.1, Jazz 115.9 (projected combined total of 224.0 points and an implied fair spread of Jazz -7.8). Visiting San Antonio Spurs (0-1, 104.0 PPG, 116.0 OPPG, -12.0 net diff) enters this matchup led by Stephon Castle (24.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 APG), while host Utah Jazz (0-0, 0.0 PPG, 0.0 OPPG, 0.0 net diff) counters with Utah Jazz primary starters. The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-10-28 (6:00 PM PT).

Team Profile Record Win Prob Proj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
SA San Antonio Spurs 0-1 28% 108.1 104.0 116.0 -12.0 0-0 (Road) 0-1 L1
UTAH Utah Jazz 0-0 72% 115.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0-0 (Home) 0-0 -

SA San Antonio Spurs Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Stephon CastleStephon Castle
 G STARTER 1 28.0 24.0 7.0 1.0 42.9% 41.7%
Dylan HarperDylan Harper
 G STARTER 1 32.0 18.0 7.0 5.0 41.2% 0.0%
De'Aaron FoxDe'Aaron Fox
 G STARTER 1 32.0 14.0 7.0 7.0 66.7% 0.0%
Victor WembanyamaVictor Wembanyama
 F STARTER 1 34.0 12.0 13.0 3.0 7.7% 0.0%
Keldon JohnsonKeldon Johnson
 F ROTATION 1 20.0 10.0 4.0 1.0 50.0% 50.0%
Julian ChampagnieJulian Champagnie
 F ROTATION 1 30.0 8.0 3.0 1.0 37.5% 33.3%
Devin VassellDevin Vassell
 G STARTER 1 31.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 25.0% 25.0%
Luke KornetLuke Kornet
 C BENCH 1 13.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 100.0% 0.0%

UTAH Utah Jazz Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%