OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

1-0
Sim Win / Proj
58% (113.5)
6:30 PM PT
Implied Edge: Thunder -3.0 · Proj Total: 224.0
Open Matchup Simulator →
Sim Win / Proj
42% (110.5)

Dallas Mavericks

0-0
DAL

Pregame 500,000x GPU Monte Carlo Simulation & Matchup Preview

Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Oklahoma City Thunder hold a 58% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Thunder 113.5, Mavericks 110.5 (projected combined total of 224.0 points and an implied fair spread of Thunder -3.0). Visiting Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0, 116.0 PPG, 104.0 OPPG, +12.0 net diff) enters this matchup led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.0 APG), while host Dallas Mavericks (0-0, 0.0 PPG, 0.0 OPPG, 0.0 net diff) counters with Dallas Mavericks primary starters. The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-10-28 (6:30 PM PT).

Team Profile Record Win Prob Proj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder 1-0 58% 113.5 116.0 104.0 +12.0 1-0 (Road) 1-0 W1
DAL Dallas Mavericks 0-0 42% 110.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0-0 (Home) 0-0 -

OKC Oklahoma City Thunder Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderShai Gilgeous-Alexander
 G STARTER 1 36.0 32.0 5.0 4.0 48.1% 42.9%
Jared McCainJared McCain
 G ROTATION 1 22.0 20.0 3.0 2.0 77.8% 75.0%
Chet HolmgrenChet Holmgren
 C STARTER 1 31.0 14.0 7.0 2.0 37.5% 0.0%
Jalen WilliamsJalen Williams
 G STARTER 1 30.0 12.0 7.0 2.0 31.2% 50.0%
Alex CarusoAlex Caruso
 G ROTATION 1 25.0 9.0 7.0 1.0 75.0% 100.0%
Aday MaraAday Mara
 C BENCH 1 12.0 7.0 2.0 1.0 75.0% 0.0%
Cason WallaceCason Wallace
 G STARTER 1 19.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 37.5% 0.0%
Jaylin WilliamsJaylin Williams
 F ROTATION 1 17.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 16.7% 20.0%

DAL Dallas Mavericks Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%