ATL

Atlanta Hawks

2-0
Sim Win / Proj
81% (130.6)
4:00 PM PT
Implied Edge: Hawks -11.1 · Proj Total: 250.0
Sim Win / Proj
19% (119.5)

New Orleans Pelicans

0-1
NO

Game Bets & Ledger (ATL @ NO)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Atlanta Hawks hold a 81% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Hawks 130.6, Pelicans 119.5 (projected combined total of 250.0 points and an implied fair spread of Hawks -11.1). Visiting Atlanta Hawks (2-0, 130.0 PPG, 103.0 OPPG, +27.0 net diff) enters this matchup led by Jalen Johnson (22.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 7.8 APG), while host New Orleans Pelicans (0-1, 120.0 PPG, 123.0 OPPG, -3.0 net diff) counters with Trey Murphy III (21.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.7 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-10-31 (4:00 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
ATL Atlanta Hawks #1 East 2-0 1.000 - 81%130.6 130.0 103.0 +27.0 2-0 (Road) 2-0 W2
NO New Orleans Pelicans #8 West 0-1 .000 1.5 19%119.5 120.0 123.0 -3.0 0-1 (Home) 0-1 L1

ATL Atlanta Hawks Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Jalen JohnsonJalen Johnson
 F STARTER 74 35.0 22.4 10.3 7.8 48.8% 34.5%
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerNickeil Alexander-Walker
 G STARTER 80 33.2 20.9 3.4 3.7 45.9% 40.1%
Trae YoungTrae Young
 G STARTER 10 27.9 19.3 1.5 8.9 41.5% 30.5%
CJ McCollumCJ McCollum
 G STARTER 43 28.5 18.6 3.0 4.0 46.0% 36.2%
Aaron WigginsAaron Wiggins
 G ROTATION 2 27.0 17.5 2.0 0.5 66.7% 60.0%
Kristaps PorzingisKristaps Porzingis
 C STARTER 17 24.3 17.1 5.1 2.7 45.7% 36.0%
Onyeka OkongwuOnyeka Okongwu
 F STARTER 76 30.9 15.0 7.5 3.1 47.9% 37.3%
Jonathan KumingaJonathan Kuminga
 F ROTATION 16 22.1 12.2 5.3 2.1 47.6% 34.6%

NO New Orleans Pelicans Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Trey Murphy IIITrey Murphy III
 F STARTER 67 35.4 21.4 5.7 3.7 46.9% 37.9%
Zion WilliamsonZion Williamson
 F STARTER 63 29.7 21.0 5.7 3.2 59.7% 37.5%
Saddiq BeySaddiq Bey
 G STARTER 73 31.1 17.6 5.5 2.5 45.1% 36.8%
Dejounte MurrayDejounte Murray
 G STARTER 15 28.3 17.1 5.2 6.4 48.5% 31.3%
Jeremiah FearsJeremiah Fears
 G STARTER 83 25.7 14.2 3.7 3.4 43.2% 32.8%
Jordan PooleJordan Poole
 G ROTATION 40 23.8 13.2 2.0 3.0 36.8% 33.0%
Derik QueenDerik Queen
 C STARTER 82 25.0 11.7 7.1 3.6 47.3% 26.1%
Bennedict MathurinBennedict Mathurin
 G ROTATION 1 18.0 11.0 3.0 2.0 42.9% 0.0%