ATL

Atlanta Hawks

2-2
Sim Win / Proj
53% (119.3)
4:30 PM PT
Implied Edge: Hawks -1.1 · Proj Total: 237.5
Sim Win / Proj
47% (118.2)

Indiana Pacers

2-2
IND

Game Bets & Ledger (ATL @ IND)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Atlanta Hawks hold a 53% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Hawks 119.3, Pacers 118.2 (projected combined total of 237.5 points and an implied fair spread of Hawks -1.1). Visiting Atlanta Hawks (2-2, 121.0 PPG, 111.8 OPPG, +9.2 net diff) enters this matchup led by Jalen Johnson (22.5 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 7.9 APG), while host Indiana Pacers (2-2, 116.5 PPG, 115.0 OPPG, +1.5 net diff) counters with Pascal Siakam (23.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.8 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-11-02 (4:30 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
ATL Atlanta Hawks #7 East 2-2 .500 1.5 53%119.3 121.0 111.8 +9.2 2-1 (Road) 2-2 L2
IND Indiana Pacers #8 East 2-2 .500 1.5 47%118.2 116.5 115.0 +1.5 0-1 (Home) 2-2 L1

ATL Atlanta Hawks Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Jalen JohnsonJalen Johnson
 F STARTER 76 35.1 22.5 10.2 7.9 48.5% 34.2%
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerNickeil Alexander-Walker
 G STARTER 82 33.2 20.7 3.4 3.7 45.8% 39.9%
Trae YoungTrae Young
 G STARTER 10 27.9 19.3 1.5 8.9 41.5% 30.5%
CJ McCollumCJ McCollum
 G STARTER 45 28.6 18.6 3.0 3.9 46.1% 36.4%
Kristaps PorzingisKristaps Porzingis
 C STARTER 17 24.3 17.1 5.1 2.7 45.7% 36.0%
Aaron WigginsAaron Wiggins
 G ROTATION 4 27.5 15.8 3.2 1.5 53.5% 48.0%
Onyeka OkongwuOnyeka Okongwu
 F STARTER 78 30.8 14.9 7.5 3.1 47.7% 36.8%
Jonathan KumingaJonathan Kuminga
 F ROTATION 16 22.1 12.2 5.3 2.1 47.6% 34.6%

IND Indiana Pacers Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Pascal SiakamPascal Siakam
 F STARTER 66 33.1 23.9 6.7 3.8 48.7% 36.3%
Tyrese HaliburtonTyrese Haliburton
 G STARTER 4 33.0 21.8 4.5 9.5 51.6% 37.0%
Bennedict MathurinBennedict Mathurin
 G STARTER 28 31.8 17.8 5.4 2.2 43.3% 37.2%
Andrew NembhardAndrew Nembhard
 G STARTER 60 31.4 16.9 2.8 7.6 44.6% 36.5%
Aaron NesmithAaron Nesmith
 G STARTER 48 29.0 13.7 4.0 1.9 41.5% 37.8%
Obi ToppinObi Toppin
 F ROTATION 28 18.5 12.2 4.5 2.2 51.0% 36.2%
Jarace WalkerJarace Walker
 F STARTER 80 25.5 11.3 5.2 2.5 41.4% 36.9%
Ivica ZubacIvica Zubac
 C STARTER 8 22.9 10.6 7.9 1.6 50.7% 0.0%