IND

Indiana Pacers

2-2
Sim Win / Proj
33% (113.6)
5:00 PM PT
Implied Edge: Grizzlies -6.1 · Proj Total: 233.3
Sim Win / Proj
67% (119.7)

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0
MEM

Game Bets & Ledger (IND @ MEM)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Memphis Grizzlies hold a 67% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Pacers 113.6, Grizzlies 119.7 (projected combined total of 233.3 points and an implied fair spread of Grizzlies -6.1). Visiting Indiana Pacers (2-2, 116.5 PPG, 115.0 OPPG, +1.5 net diff) enters this matchup led by Pascal Siakam (23.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.8 APG), while host Memphis Grizzlies (4-0, 116.8 PPG, 107.0 OPPG, +9.8 net diff) counters with Ty Jerome (21.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.8 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-11-04 (5:00 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
IND Indiana Pacers #8 East 2-2 .500 1.0 33%113.6 116.5 115.0 +1.5 2-1 (Road) 2-2 L1
MEM Memphis Grizzlies #3 West 4-0 1.000 - 67%119.7 116.8 107.0 +9.8 1-0 (Home) 4-0 W4

IND Indiana Pacers Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Pascal SiakamPascal Siakam
 F STARTER 66 33.1 23.9 6.7 3.8 48.7% 36.3%
Tyrese HaliburtonTyrese Haliburton
 G STARTER 4 33.0 21.8 4.5 9.5 51.6% 37.0%
Bennedict MathurinBennedict Mathurin
 G STARTER 28 31.8 17.8 5.4 2.2 43.3% 37.2%
Andrew NembhardAndrew Nembhard
 G STARTER 60 31.4 16.9 2.8 7.6 44.6% 36.5%
Aaron NesmithAaron Nesmith
 G STARTER 48 29.0 13.7 4.0 1.9 41.5% 37.8%
Obi ToppinObi Toppin
 F ROTATION 28 18.5 12.2 4.5 2.2 51.0% 36.2%
Jarace WalkerJarace Walker
 F STARTER 80 25.5 11.3 5.2 2.5 41.4% 36.9%
Ivica ZubacIvica Zubac
 C STARTER 8 22.9 10.6 7.9 1.6 50.7% 0.0%

MEM Memphis Grizzlies Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Ty JeromeTy Jerome
 G STARTER 19 24.6 21.8 3.0 5.8 48.3% 40.9%
Ja MorantJa Morant
 G STARTER 20 28.4 19.4 3.2 8.1 41.0% 23.5%
Jaren Jackson Jr.Jaren Jackson Jr.
 F STARTER 45 30.8 19.2 5.8 1.9 47.5% 35.9%
Dariq WhiteheadDariq Whitehead
 F ROTATION 6 30.5 16.3 4.0 1.5 39.8% 31.7%
Cameron BoozerCameron Boozer
 F STARTER 4 33.0 15.2 10.5 4.8 29.5% 26.9%
Santi AldamaSanti Aldama
 F ROTATION 43 27.8 14.0 6.7 2.9 47.9% 35.0%
Cedric CowardCedric Coward
 F STARTER 65 26.0 13.6 6.0 2.7 47.3% 35.3%
Jaylen WellsJaylen Wells
 F STARTER 73 26.5 12.7 3.2 1.6 43.9% 36.0%