TOR

Toronto Raptors

2-1
Sim Win / Proj
67% (116.4)
6:00 PM PT
Implied Edge: Raptors -6.0 · Proj Total: 226.7
Sim Win / Proj
33% (110.3)

Denver Nuggets

1-2
DEN

Game Bets & Ledger (TOR @ DEN)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Toronto Raptors hold a 67% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Raptors 116.4, Nuggets 110.3 (projected combined total of 226.7 points and an implied fair spread of Raptors -6.0). Visiting Toronto Raptors (2-1, 113.7 PPG, 103.7 OPPG, +10.0 net diff) enters this matchup led by Brandon Ingram (21.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.7 APG), while host Denver Nuggets (1-2, 113.0 PPG, 121.7 OPPG, -8.7 net diff) counters with Nikola Jokic (27.4 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 10.6 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-11-04 (6:00 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
TOR Toronto Raptors #5 East 2-1 .667 0.5 67%116.4 113.7 103.7 +10.0 1-1 (Road) 2-1 L1
DEN Denver Nuggets #10 West 1-2 .333 2.5 33%110.3 113.0 121.7 -8.7 1-1 (Home) 1-2 L1

TOR Toronto Raptors Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Brandon IngramBrandon Ingram
 F STARTER 77 33.8 21.5 5.6 3.7 47.7% 38.2%
Kawhi LeonardKawhi Leonard
 F STARTER 2 26.0 19.5 7.5 1.5 32.4% 28.6%
RJ BarrettRJ Barrett
 F STARTER 60 30.3 19.4 5.2 3.3 49.3% 33.0%
Scottie BarnesScottie Barnes
 F STARTER 83 33.4 18.1 7.5 5.9 49.9% 29.4%
Immanuel QuickleyImmanuel Quickley
 G STARTER 73 31.8 16.5 4.0 5.9 44.2% 37.1%
Sandro MamukelashviliSandro Mamukelashvili
 F ROTATION 80 21.9 11.2 4.9 1.9 52.3% 38.9%
Jakob PoeltlJakob Poeltl
 C STARTER 49 24.9 10.2 6.9 1.9 69.6% 0.0%
Collin Murray-BoylesCollin Murray-Boyles
 F ROTATION 60 21.7 8.3 5.0 1.9 57.0% 32.7%

DEN Denver Nuggets Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Nikola JokicNikola Jokic
 C STARTER 68 35.0 27.4 12.7 10.6 56.1% 36.8%
Jamal MurrayJamal Murray
 G STARTER 78 35.5 25.3 4.5 7.1 48.2% 43.7%
Aaron GordonAaron Gordon
 F STARTER 39 28.1 15.8 5.7 2.6 48.8% 38.5%
DeMar DeRozanDeMar DeRozan
 G ROTATION 3 27.0 15.3 3.0 1.7 47.1% 25.0%
Peyton WatsonPeyton Watson
 G STARTER 54 29.6 14.6 4.9 2.1 49.1% 41.1%
Tim Hardaway Jr.Tim Hardaway Jr.
 G ROTATION 80 26.6 13.5 2.6 1.4 44.7% 40.7%
Cameron JohnsonCameron Johnson
 F STARTER 55 30.2 12.1 3.8 2.4 48.1% 43.2%
Christian BraunChristian Braun
 G STARTER 47 32.0 11.9 4.9 2.7 51.6% 28.8%