DAL

Dallas Mavericks

2-2
Sim Win / Proj
30% (111.0)
6:30 PM PT
Implied Edge: Spurs -7.0 · Proj Total: 229.0
Sim Win / Proj
70% (118.0)

San Antonio Spurs

2-2
SA

Game Bets & Ledger (DAL @ SA)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the San Antonio Spurs hold a 70% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Mavericks 111.0, Spurs 118.0 (projected combined total of 229.0 points and an implied fair spread of Spurs -7.0). Visiting Dallas Mavericks (2-2, 112.5 PPG, 116.0 OPPG, -3.5 net diff) enters this matchup led by Cooper Flagg (21.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.6 APG), while host San Antonio Spurs (2-2, 116.5 PPG, 109.8 OPPG, +6.8 net diff) counters with Victor Wembanyama (24.7 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 3.0 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-11-04 (6:30 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
DAL Dallas Mavericks #8 West 2-2 .500 2.0 30%111.0 112.5 116.0 -3.5 2-1 (Road) 2-2 W1
SA San Antonio Spurs #7 West 2-2 .500 2.0 70%118.0 116.5 109.8 +6.8 1-2 (Home) 2-2 W2

DAL Dallas Mavericks Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Cooper FlaggCooper Flagg
 F STARTER 73 33.4 21.2 6.6 4.6 47.2% 29.8%
Anthony DavisAnthony Davis
 F STARTER 20 31.2 20.4 11.1 2.8 50.6% 27.0%
Kyrie IrvingKyrie Irving
 G STARTER 3 27.3 19.0 3.7 3.7 51.2% 33.3%
Naji MarshallNaji Marshall
 F STARTER 77 29.4 15.2 4.6 3.4 50.9% 28.9%
P.J. WashingtonP.J. Washington
 F STARTER 60 31.2 14.2 7.1 1.7 45.1% 32.6%
Brandon WilliamsBrandon Williams
 G ROTATION 66 22.2 13.0 2.9 3.9 47.2% 23.2%
Max ChristieMax Christie
 G STARTER 81 29.2 12.1 3.3 2.0 43.8% 39.9%
Klay ThompsonKlay Thompson
 G ROTATION 69 21.7 11.7 2.1 1.4 39.3% 38.3%

SA San Antonio Spurs Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Victor WembanyamaVictor Wembanyama
 F STARTER 69 29.2 24.7 11.4 3.0 50.7% 34.1%
De'Aaron FoxDe'Aaron Fox
 G STARTER 77 31.0 18.4 3.8 6.3 48.8% 33.6%
Stephon CastleStephon Castle
 G STARTER 73 30.0 16.7 5.4 7.3 46.5% 33.8%
Devin VassellDevin Vassell
 G STARTER 72 30.6 13.7 4.0 2.6 43.3% 38.3%
Keldon JohnsonKeldon Johnson
 F ROTATION 87 23.1 12.9 5.3 1.3 51.9% 36.3%
Dylan HarperDylan Harper
 G ROTATION 74 23.1 12.3 3.5 3.8 50.6% 35.2%
Julian ChampagnieJulian Champagnie
 F STARTER 87 27.6 11.1 5.6 1.6 43.9% 38.6%
Harrison BarnesHarrison Barnes
 F STARTER 82 24.9 9.5 2.6 1.8 45.4% 38.1%