MIA

Miami Heat

1-4
Sim Win / Proj
36% (112.8)
7:00 PM PT
Implied Edge: Warriors -5.1 · Proj Total: 230.6
Sim Win / Proj
64% (117.8)

Golden State Warriors

2-3
GS

Game Bets & Ledger (MIA @ GS)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Golden State Warriors hold a 64% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Heat 112.8, Warriors 117.8 (projected combined total of 230.6 points and an implied fair spread of Warriors -5.1). Visiting Miami Heat (1-4, 113.0 PPG, 120.8 OPPG, -7.8 net diff) enters this matchup led by Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.6 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 4.6 APG), while host Golden State Warriors (2-3, 117.6 PPG, 119.4 OPPG, -1.8 net diff) counters with Stephen Curry (26.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.6 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-11-05 (7:00 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
MIA Miami Heat #12 East 1-4 .200 3.0 36%112.8 113.0 120.8 -7.8 1-1 (Road) 1-4 W1
GS Golden State Warriors #10 West 2-3 .400 3.0 64%117.8 117.6 119.4 -1.8 0-1 (Home) 2-3 W2

MIA Miami Heat Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo
 F STARTER 5 31.6 27.6 11.4 4.6 56.7% 25.0%
Norman PowellNorman Powell
 G STARTER 58 29.6 21.7 3.5 2.5 47.0% 38.0%
Tyler HerroTyler Herro
 G STARTER 33 31.2 20.5 4.8 4.1 48.0% 37.8%
Bam AdebayoBam Adebayo
 C STARTER 78 32.3 19.7 9.9 3.2 44.1% 31.0%
Jaime Jaquez Jr.Jaime Jaquez Jr.
 F ROTATION 75 28.3 15.4 5.0 4.7 50.7% 31.7%
Andrew WigginsAndrew Wiggins
 F STARTER 73 30.1 15.0 4.7 2.6 47.4% 40.4%
Pelle LarssonPelle Larsson
 G STARTER 75 26.7 11.4 3.5 3.4 49.1% 32.5%
Kel'el WareKel'el Ware
 C ROTATION 77 22.2 11.1 9.0 0.7 53.0% 39.5%

GS Golden State Warriors Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Stephen CurryStephen Curry
 G STARTER 47 30.7 26.7 3.6 4.6 46.9% 39.2%
Yaxel LendeborgYaxel Lendeborg
 F STARTER 5 33.6 22.6 9.0 4.0 47.5% 35.5%
Jimmy Butler IIIJimmy Butler III
 F STARTER 38 31.2 20.0 5.6 4.9 51.9% 37.6%
Kristaps PorzingisKristaps Porzingis
 C STARTER 15 23.8 16.1 5.3 2.3 43.3% 31.1%
Brandin PodziemskiBrandin Podziemski
 G STARTER 85 28.6 13.8 5.1 3.7 45.5% 36.9%
Moses MoodyMoses Moody
 G STARTER 60 25.7 12.1 3.3 1.6 44.0% 40.1%
Jonathan KumingaJonathan Kuminga
 F STARTER 20 23.9 12.1 5.8 2.5 45.4% 32.1%
De'Anthony MeltonDe'Anthony Melton
 G ROTATION 54 22.9 12.0 3.3 2.5 40.9% 30.3%