OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

2-0
Sim Win / Proj
36% (114.5)
5:30 PM PT
Implied Edge: Rockets -5.1 · Proj Total: 234.0
Sim Win / Proj
64% (119.5)

Houston Rockets

1-0
HOU

Game Bets & Ledger (OKC @ HOU)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Houston Rockets hold a 64% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Thunder 114.5, Rockets 119.5 (projected combined total of 234.0 points and an implied fair spread of Rockets -5.1). Visiting Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0, 106.0 PPG, 94.0 OPPG, +12.0 net diff) enters this matchup led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 6.5 APG), while host Houston Rockets (1-0, 128.0 PPG, 110.0 OPPG, +18.0 net diff) counters with Kevin Durant (26.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.7 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-10-31 (5:30 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder #1 West 2-0 1.000 - 36%114.5 106.0 94.0 +12.0 1-0 (Road) 2-0 W2
HOU Houston Rockets #7 West 1-0 1.000 0.5 64%119.5 128.0 110.0 +18.0 1-0 (Home) 1-0 W1

OKC Oklahoma City Thunder Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderShai Gilgeous-Alexander
 G STARTER 70 33.3 30.9 4.3 6.5 54.9% 38.3%
Jalen WilliamsJalen Williams
 G STARTER 35 28.6 17.0 4.7 5.3 47.8% 30.6%
Chet HolmgrenChet Holmgren
 C STARTER 71 29.0 17.0 9.0 1.7 55.5% 35.9%
Ajay MitchellAjay Mitchell
 G ROTATION 59 25.7 13.4 3.3 3.6 48.1% 33.7%
Isaiah JoeIsaiah Joe
 G ROTATION 71 21.2 11.1 2.5 1.3 45.5% 42.3%
Jared McCainJared McCain
 G ROTATION 32 18.1 10.5 2.0 1.0 46.6% 40.3%
Aaron WigginsAaron Wiggins
 G ROTATION 65 21.8 9.4 3.1 1.7 43.1% 35.6%
Isaiah HartensteinIsaiah Hartenstein
 C STARTER 49 24.1 9.0 9.2 3.5 61.0% 0.0%

HOU Houston Rockets Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Kevin DurantKevin Durant
 F STARTER 79 36.4 26.0 5.5 4.7 52.2% 41.4%
Alperen SengunAlperen Sengun
 C STARTER 73 33.3 20.4 8.9 6.2 52.0% 31.6%
Amen ThompsonAmen Thompson
 G STARTER 80 37.3 18.2 7.8 5.3 53.3% 22.0%
Jabari Smith Jr.Jabari Smith Jr.
 F STARTER 78 35.2 16.0 6.8 1.8 45.2% 36.5%
Reed SheppardReed Sheppard
 G ROTATION 83 26.1 13.4 2.9 3.4 42.9% 39.2%
Tristen NewtonTristen Newton
 G BENCH 1 12.0 12.0 3.0 0.0 44.4% 40.0%
Tari EasonTari Eason
 F STARTER 61 25.5 10.3 6.2 1.5 41.6% 35.8%
Marcus SmartMarcus Smart
 G ROTATION 1 26.0 10.0 2.0 2.0 57.1% 50.0%