OKC

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-0
Sim Win / Proj
57% (116.6)
4:00 PM PT
Implied Edge: Thunder -2.6 · Proj Total: 230.5
Sim Win / Proj
43% (113.9)

Cleveland Cavaliers

2-1
CLE

Game Bets & Ledger (OKC @ CLE)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Oklahoma City Thunder hold a 57% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Thunder 116.6, Cavaliers 113.9 (projected combined total of 230.5 points and an implied fair spread of Thunder -2.6). Visiting Oklahoma City Thunder (4-0, 111.2 PPG, 100.8 OPPG, +10.5 net diff) enters this matchup led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 6.4 APG), while host Cleveland Cavaliers (2-1, 119.3 PPG, 120.0 OPPG, -0.7 net diff) counters with Donovan Mitchell (27.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 5.6 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-11-02 (4:00 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
OKC Oklahoma City Thunder #1 West 4-0 1.000 - 57%116.6 111.2 100.8 +10.5 1-0 (Road) 4-0 W4
CLE Cleveland Cavaliers #6 East 2-1 .667 1.0 43%113.9 119.3 120.0 -0.7 2-0 (Home) 2-1 W2

OKC Oklahoma City Thunder Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderShai Gilgeous-Alexander
 G STARTER 72 33.3 30.9 4.3 6.4 54.9% 37.7%
Chet HolmgrenChet Holmgren
 C STARTER 72 29.0 16.9 8.9 1.7 55.2% 36.1%
Jalen WilliamsJalen Williams
 G STARTER 36 28.7 16.8 4.6 5.3 47.6% 30.2%
Ajay MitchellAjay Mitchell
 G ROTATION 61 25.7 13.7 3.3 3.6 48.7% 33.9%
Isaiah JoeIsaiah Joe
 G ROTATION 71 21.2 11.1 2.5 1.3 45.5% 42.3%
Jared McCainJared McCain
 G ROTATION 34 18.6 10.5 2.0 1.0 45.5% 40.4%
Aaron WigginsAaron Wiggins
 G ROTATION 65 21.8 9.4 3.1 1.7 43.1% 35.6%
Isaiah HartensteinIsaiah Hartenstein
 C STARTER 51 24.2 9.2 9.4 3.4 61.3% 0.0%

CLE Cleveland Cavaliers Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Donovan MitchellDonovan Mitchell
 G STARTER 73 33.5 27.8 4.6 5.6 48.4% 36.7%
James HardenJames Harden
 G STARTER 29 34.0 20.1 4.8 7.6 45.6% 42.7%
Evan MobleyEvan Mobley
 C STARTER 68 32.1 18.1 9.0 3.6 54.5% 30.9%
Darius GarlandDarius Garland
 G STARTER 26 30.4 18.0 2.4 6.9 45.1% 36.0%
Meleek ThomasMeleek Thomas
 G ROTATION 1 19.0 16.0 2.0 0.0 60.0% 80.0%
Jarrett AllenJarrett Allen
 C STARTER 59 27.2 15.3 8.5 1.7 63.8% 18.2%
De'Andre HunterDe'Andre Hunter
 F STARTER 43 26.2 14.0 4.2 2.1 42.3% 30.8%
Jaylon TysonJaylon Tyson
 G STARTER 69 26.7 13.1 5.1 2.3 49.1% 43.5%