BOS

Boston Celtics

2-1
Sim Win / Proj
44% (118.3)
5:30 PM PT
Implied Edge: Rockets -2.2 · Proj Total: 238.8
Sim Win / Proj
56% (120.5)

Houston Rockets

4-0
HOU

Game Bets & Ledger (BOS @ HOU)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Houston Rockets hold a 56% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Celtics 118.3, Rockets 120.5 (projected combined total of 238.8 points and an implied fair spread of Rockets -2.2). Visiting Boston Celtics (2-1, 118.0 PPG, 107.7 OPPG, +10.3 net diff) enters this matchup led by Jaylen Brown (28.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 5.1 APG), while host Houston Rockets (4-0, 120.8 PPG, 111.0 OPPG, +9.8 net diff) counters with Kevin Durant (25.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.7 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-11-02 (5:30 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
BOS Boston Celtics #4 East 2-1 .667 1.0 44%118.3 118.0 107.7 +10.3 0-1 (Road) 2-1 W2
HOU Houston Rockets #2 West 4-0 1.000 - 56%120.5 120.8 111.0 +9.8 2-0 (Home) 4-0 W4

BOS Boston Celtics Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Jaylen BrownJaylen Brown
 G STARTER 71 34.4 28.7 6.9 5.1 47.7% 34.7%
Paul GeorgePaul George
 F STARTER 3 30.0 23.0 5.7 2.3 46.0% 50.0%
Jayson TatumJayson Tatum
 F STARTER 19 32.9 22.1 9.5 5.7 41.1% 31.5%
Payton PritchardPayton Pritchard
 G STARTER 82 32.2 17.0 3.9 5.1 46.5% 38.3%
Derrick WhiteDerrick White
 G STARTER 80 33.9 16.3 4.4 5.4 39.7% 32.8%
Anfernee SimonsAnfernee Simons
 G ROTATION 49 24.5 14.2 2.4 2.4 44.0% 39.5%
Neemias QuetaNeemias Queta
 C STARTER 79 25.2 10.1 8.2 1.6 64.9% 22.2%
Nikola VucevicNikola Vucevic
 C ROTATION 16 21.1 9.7 6.6 2.0 43.9% 34.0%

HOU Houston Rockets Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Kevin DurantKevin Durant
 F STARTER 82 36.4 25.9 5.5 4.7 52.1% 41.5%
Alperen SengunAlperen Sengun
 C STARTER 76 33.4 20.6 8.9 6.2 52.2% 32.9%
Amen ThompsonAmen Thompson
 G STARTER 83 37.2 18.2 7.8 5.2 53.3% 22.5%
Jabari Smith Jr.Jabari Smith Jr.
 F STARTER 81 35.2 15.8 6.9 1.9 45.2% 36.5%
Reed SheppardReed Sheppard
 G ROTATION 85 26.1 13.5 2.9 3.4 43.0% 39.2%
Tristen NewtonTristen Newton
 G BENCH 1 12.0 12.0 3.0 0.0 44.4% 40.0%
Tari EasonTari Eason
 F STARTER 64 25.8 10.5 6.2 1.4 42.1% 35.1%
Fred VanVleetFred VanVleet
 G STARTER 3 30.3 8.3 3.0 7.0 32.0% 29.4%