MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-1
Sim Win / Proj
52% (121.8)
5:30 PM PT
Implied Edge: Timberwolves -0.8 · Proj Total: 242.8
Sim Win / Proj
48% (121.0)

Houston Rockets

4-0
HOU

Game Bets & Ledger (MIN @ HOU)

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Team Standings & Season Profile

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Across 500,000 GPU Monte Carlo simulations, the Minnesota Timberwolves hold a 52% pregame win probability with a projected final score of Timberwolves 121.8, Rockets 121.0 (projected combined total of 242.8 points and an implied fair spread of Timberwolves -0.8). Visiting Minnesota Timberwolves (3-1, 122.0 PPG, 105.0 OPPG, +17.0 net diff) enters this matchup led by Anthony Edwards (29.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.7 APG), while host Houston Rockets (4-0, 120.8 PPG, 111.0 OPPG, +9.8 net diff) counters with Kevin Durant (25.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.7 APG). The simulation model weights 97,326 historical NBA box-score rows, starter vs. bench rotation stints, pace-adjusted possession efficiency, and foul-trouble tail risk ahead of tip-off on 2026-11-04 (5:30 PM PT).

Team Conf Rank Record Win% GB Win ProbProj Score PPG OPPG Net Diff Home / Road L10 Streak
MIN Minnesota Timberwolves #5 West 3-1 .750 1.0 52%121.8 122.0 105.0 +17.0 2-1 (Road) 3-1 L1
HOU Houston Rockets #2 West 4-0 1.000 - 48%121.0 120.8 111.0 +9.8 2-0 (Home) 4-0 W4

MIN Minnesota Timberwolves Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Anthony EdwardsAnthony Edwards
 G STARTER 65 34.9 29.1 4.9 3.7 48.9% 39.9%
Julius RandleJulius Randle
 F STARTER 79 33.1 21.1 6.7 5.0 48.1% 31.5%
Jaden McDanielsJaden McDaniels
 F STARTER 77 31.8 14.9 4.4 2.7 51.9% 41.3%
LaMelo BallLaMelo Ball
 G STARTER 4 25.0 14.8 2.0 6.2 43.8% 38.7%
Ayo DosunmuAyo Dosunmu
 G ROTATION 28 28.4 14.0 4.2 3.6 51.7% 41.7%
Naz ReidNaz Reid
 C ROTATION 77 26.1 13.6 6.2 2.2 45.6% 36.2%
Donte DiVincenzoDonte DiVincenzo
 G STARTER 82 30.5 12.2 4.1 3.8 40.6% 37.9%
Jonathan KumingaJonathan Kuminga
 F STARTER 4 29.8 11.5 5.5 2.5 45.7% 46.7%

HOU Houston Rockets Projected Rotation & Season Averages

Player POS ROLE GP MPG PPG RPG APG FG% 3P%
Kevin DurantKevin Durant
 F STARTER 82 36.4 25.9 5.5 4.7 52.1% 41.5%
Alperen SengunAlperen Sengun
 C STARTER 76 33.4 20.6 8.9 6.2 52.2% 32.9%
Amen ThompsonAmen Thompson
 G STARTER 83 37.2 18.2 7.8 5.2 53.3% 22.5%
Jabari Smith Jr.Jabari Smith Jr.
 F STARTER 81 35.2 15.8 6.9 1.9 45.2% 36.5%
Reed SheppardReed Sheppard
 G ROTATION 85 26.1 13.5 2.9 3.4 43.0% 39.2%
Tristen NewtonTristen Newton
 G BENCH 1 12.0 12.0 3.0 0.0 44.4% 40.0%
Tari EasonTari Eason
 F STARTER 64 25.8 10.5 6.2 1.4 42.1% 35.1%
Fred VanVleetFred VanVleet
 G STARTER 3 30.3 8.3 3.0 7.0 32.0% 29.4%